{"id":36171,"date":"2020-07-02T09:09:52","date_gmt":"2020-07-02T13:09:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/?post_type=emagazine&p=36171"},"modified":"2022-08-04T07:39:38","modified_gmt":"2022-08-04T11:39:38","slug":"how-to-spot-hype","status":"publish","type":"emagazine","link":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/secure-futures-magazine\/how-to-spot-hype\/36171\/","title":{"rendered":"Many hats make light work: How to see the truth hidden by tech hype"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hype is increasingly playing a big part in the worst decisions around technology. Investors and journalists alike fell for Elizabeth Holmes\u2019 shiny pitch for her non-existent blood testing technology Theranos<\/a>. Fitness tracker Jawbone, once valued at 3 billion US dollars, was among several wearable tech firms to go spectacularly belly-up<\/a> as it became clear the market wasn\u2019t as expected.<\/p>\n

Decision-makers in business need to be able to sort hype from opportunity, basing their choices on level analysis, not amped-up marketing. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Seeing past puffed-up narratives and getting to the core of claims means making more informed decisions around technology, investing in the most promising next steps and building a business strategy with concrete foundations.<\/p>\n

You needn\u2019t necessarily wade through the mountains of information we\u2019re faced with every day to spot hype.<\/p>\n

As a science and tech journalist and advisor for Innovate UK and the European Commission on start-up funding, my job is to work out what\u2019s hype and what\u2019s not.<\/p>\n

Here are six ways to hone your critical thinking and better understand the complexity, adapted from my recent book, Smoke and mirrors: How hype obscures the future and how to see past it<\/a>.<\/p>\n

1. Understand what hype is for<\/h2>\n

Most people think hype is a bad thing, and it can be a problem in that it sends us along the wrong path. But there\u2019s more to it.<\/p>\n

If \u2018consensual\u2019 fooling is what magicians do (you go to a magic show to be fooled,) \u2018non-consensual\u2019 fooling is lying. Hype could be considered \u2018accidental fooling\u2019 \u2013 the messages are not intended to misinform, but the person receiving them can easily get the wrong end of the stick.<\/p>\n

Hype is powerful. People use it because they\u2019re keen to get out what they think are important messages. They want to grab your attention. For example, government health guidelines intend to inform society. They might use hype to ensure people receive the message loud and clear.<\/p>\n

When you remember what hype is for, you may see a message differently. Ask yourself why the communicator might use hype. Are they trying to sell something, convince you to change your behavior or to expose a problem? Think about why and how the message got in front of you when interpreting it.<\/p>\n

2. Find the nuance<\/h2>\n

Many headlines and start-up pitches include absolute statements, like \u201cAI will revolutionize health\u201d or \u201crobots will replace farmers.\u201d Statements like these are shortcuts to establish a jumping-off point. They\u2019re not necessarily false and normally contain a trace of truth, but they miss out a lot in their simplicity.<\/p>\n

To find the nuance, say to yourself, \u201cWell, it depends.\u201d You\u2019re not denying another\u2019s expertise but getting yourself into a questioning state. When you start from a place of \u201cWell, it depends,\u201d your mind can better explore scenarios that test the statement. For example, \u201cIt depends what kind of job I have as to whether a robot will replace me.\u201d Just three words can open your mind to nuance in absolute statements.<\/p>\n

3. Look for your fanaticism<\/h2>\n

If you work in tech, you\u2019re probably a techno-optimist: Someone who believes technology is a force for good. We wouldn\u2019t have much innovation without this excitement and optimism, but we need to be conscious of where our excitement turns into fanaticism.<\/p>\n

Emotional desire can blind us to the reality of societal impact. We can build and promote things that may be harmful to those unlike us. It\u2019s more than putting ourselves into other people\u2019s shoes; it\u2019s taking a step back and asking, \u201cDo we need this?\u201d We know technologies can evolve and lead to related industries, becoming a problem over time. We should ask ourselves these questions in the development process to prevent unintended consequences down the line.<\/p>\n

Another question to prompt this thinking is, \u201cIf this technology were to grow in mainstream adoption, what would be the dystopian science fiction novel written about it?\u201d<\/p>\n

4. Wear more hats<\/h2>\n

The difference between those who successfully think critically around ideas and those who shy away from it isn\u2019t intelligence, but how readily they embrace complexity.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Searching for the right or wrong answer is hard when faced with a complex question like, \u201cIs AI good or bad?\u201d There\u2019s a lot to consider. You need to \u2018map\u2019 the full system of ideas somehow, know the different scenarios in which the question must be answered and draw a conclusion.<\/p>\n

A simple way to start gathering the nodes is to wear different hats, one by one. Put on your own hat. What does the question mean in your personal life or business? Then put on your supplier or your management team\u2019s hats: What does it mean in theirs? Then consider working in a country not your own, in a different industry or being someone working 50 years in the future. This is a way to remove your blinkers and so, see past the hype.<\/p>\n

5. Work out what\u2019s curbing action<\/h2>\n

Hype can make people think someone else is solving things, so they don\u2019t need to do anything. For example, in the food industry, hype around vertical farms<\/a> and lab-grown meat<\/a> lets us \u2018off the hook\u2019 of changing their habits. The \u2018tech will save us\u2019 mentality stops us making more considered decisions about what we eat today.<\/p>\n

We can also work out, beyond the narratives laid in front of us, what fears or cultural tendencies build ideas in peoples\u2019 minds they\u2019re unwilling to confront. For example, the phrase \u201cWe\u2019ll find a cure for cancer\u201d exudes hope, tenacity and courage. But it also shields fear that we still have far to go, and, of course, fear of death. This fear and, in some cultures, the taboo against talking about death, means it\u2019s become anathema to question those working in this field. It feels like doubting those on the front lines. Our trust rarely wavers. It\u2019s not necessarily a bad thing \u2013 many efforts in cancer therapeutics are successful \u2013 but when anything is culturally sacred and immune to criticism, much-needed constructive ideas are stifled. Consider the culture and public sentiment around the topic you\u2019re investigating.<\/p>\n

6. Work out who is responsible right now<\/h2>\n

Hype can sometimes give us narratives that relinquish our responsibility around technology. For example, \u201cRobots will steal our jobs.\u201d It\u2019s an easily spread and understood idea, with an element of truth, but lacks important detail.<\/p>\n

If you take away the hyped narrative, realize it\u2019s a comment on the future of automation and rephrase it to \u201cCompany executives are going to choose to replace human jobs with robotic machinery,\u201d another element becomes clear. Instead of talking about Terminator storming in to claim your job or the technological singularity<\/a> and when it might be achieved, immediate discussions around responsibility, decision-making and societal economics come to the fore. We need to work out who is involved in the technology\u2019s development right now and ensure their responsibility isn\u2019t hidden beneath simplified, hyped narratives.<\/p>\n

While decision-making in business is often the hardest part of the job, spotting hype in technology \u2013 and so preventing yourself and your business from succumbing to it \u2013 needn\u2019t be difficult. When you next come across a headline you think may be hyped, following these steps will help you make better decisions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When every new technology is hyped as the next big thing or death-knell of civilization, these six ways of thinking sort exaggeration from opportunity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2518,"featured_media":36172,"template":"","coauthors":[3504],"class_list":{"0":"post-36171","1":"emagazine","2":"type-emagazine","3":"status-publish","4":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"emagazine-category-emerging-tech","7":"emagazine-category-leadership","8":"emagazine-tag-ai","9":"emagazine-tag-environment","10":"emagazine-tag-media","11":"emagazine-tag-robots","12":"emagazine-tag-start-ups"},"hreflang":[{"hreflang":"x-default","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/secure-futures-magazine\/how-to-spot-hype\/36171\/"},{"hreflang":"en-us","url":"https:\/\/usa.kaspersky.com\/blog\/secure-futures-magazine\/how-to-spot-hype\/22728\/"}],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/emagazine\/36171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/emagazine"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/emagazine"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2518"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=36171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}