Spam evolution: January – June 2008

Kaspersky Lab, a leading developer of secure content management solutions, announces the publication of its latest half-yearly spam report.

The economic crisis has not had an impact on the volume of spam. On average, spam represented 85.5% of all mail traffic in the first six months of this year, approximately the same amount as in 1H 2008. Emails with malicious attachments made up 0.3% of all spam.

Although the crisis has not affected the overall amount of spam in mail traffic, it has had a considerable impact on the distribution of spam by category. This primarily affects spam advertising spammer services, which now makes up a record 16.6% of all spam. Meanwhile, the total amount of spam offering goods and services in the real sector has dropped 10%, making up approximately 35% of all spam. Compared to the same period in 2008, there are fewer messages containing tourism and educational offers and advertisements for various goods and services. In 1H 2008, prior to the recession, this type of spam accounted for approximately 45% of all spam.

Economic conditions have affected the remaining 65% of spam, which includes advertising of grey market goods and services and, to a lesser extent, fraudulent spam. The reasons are clear: firstly, anonymity makes it less risky for cybercriminals to find clients using spam than by other means, and they are unlikely to be bothered by moral concerns. Secondly, some types of fraud (such as phishing) simply could not exist without spam, since spam is an integral component of these schemes. Finally, many cybercriminal groupings have their own botnets and therefore the capability to conduct mass mailings at minimal cost.

The top spam categories in 1H 2009 were: Medications and health-related goods and services (22.1%), e-advertising services (16.6%), adult content spam (11%), education (10.4%), and fake luxury goods (7.4%).

Despite predictions to the contrary, the share of phishing emails has declined. Some may remember that in light of the crisis, these fraudulent emails were expected to increase; as a rule, phishers attempt to use negative situation to frighten users and persuade them into providing personal information. However, it seems that the anti-phishing measures that have been taken by major payment systems and banks and increased awareness of cyber threats have begun to the Internet scammers.

Although Russia and the US are still the leading sources of spam, but in 2H 2009, they may be displaced as the amount of spam sent from these countries is falling. 22% of all spam was sent from Russia in 2H 2008, but only 11% was sent in 1H 2009. By June, only 8% of spam was being sent from Russia. Although the fight against spam in Russia has been successful, there has not been an ultimate victory, and it's likely that spam sent from Russia will account for a stable 8 –10% of all spam.

Brazil is in third place, acting as the source of 8% of all spam. More spam is now coming from India (7%), Poland (4%), Romania (3%) and Thailand (3%), all countries that have entered the top ten sources of spam, pushing out Spain, Italy, Germany, and Ukraine.

The countries which act as the main sources of spam now tend to be located in the East rather than the West. Countries in Asia and Latin America, as well as countries in Eastern Europe (excluding Russia), are becoming more attractive to spammers since users in these countries are poorly protected against cyber threats.

Only time will tell how long this trend will last. However, it can be assumed that as users in Eastern countries become more aware of security issues, the distribution of infected machines sending spam will level out.

The full version of this report can be found on www.viruslist.com